The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER) specialises in bringing sophisticated mathematics to challenges in biological sciences. Our research spans from the theoretical to practical policy advice, and from the genome to the population. We are a team of around 20 staff from across campus with individuals based in Maths, Stats, Computer Science, Life Sciences and Medicine.
At the core of our research is a desire to better understand and predict the biological world.
It is great to see that the MathSys MSc group project by Daniel, Joshua and Robert - led by Ed Hill - has now been published.
This work looks at the very topical question of considering the likelihood…
Rawlings, NN; Bailey, M; Courtenay, O (2025) Leishmaniasis in deployed military populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 19
Roberts, I; Everitt, RG; Koskela, J; Didelot, X (2025) Bayesian Inference of Pathogen Phylogeography using the Structured Coalescent Model PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY 21
Aschauer, N; Parnell, S (2025) Analysis of mathematical modelling approaches to capture human behaviour dynamics in agricultural pest and disease systems AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 226
Guyver-Fletcher, G; Gorsich, EE; Jewell, C; Tildesley, MJ (2025) Controlling endemic foot-and-mouth disease: Vaccination is more important than movement bans. A simulation study in the Republic of Turkey INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING 10 702-715
Hill, EM; Prosser, NS; Brown, PE; Ferguson, E; Green, MJ; Kaler, J; Keeling, MJ; Tildesley, MJ (2025) Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model Preventive Vet. Med. 219 (2023) 106019 PREVENTIVE VETERINARY MEDICINE 236
Gowers, RP; Richardson, MJE (2025) Resonances in the voltage statistics and upcrossing rate of a minimal dendritic neuron model with a passive membrane PHYSICAL REVIEW E 111
Carson, J; Keeling, M; Ribeca, P; Didelot, X (2025) Incorporating Epidemiological Data into the Genomic Analysis of Partially Sampled Infectious Disease Outbreaks MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 42
Seibel, RL; Tildesley, MJ; Hill, EM (2025) Unifying human infectious disease models and real-time awareness of population- and subpopulation-level intervention effectiveness ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 12
Webber, JJ; Montenegro-Johnson, TD (2025) Poromechanical modelling of responsive hydrogel pumps JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS 1009
Helekal, D; Koskela, J; Didelot, X (2025) Inference of Multiple Mergers while Dating a Pathogen Phylogeny SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY
Kaye, AR; Guzzetta, G; Tildesley, MJ; Thompson, RN (2025) Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY 21
Keeling, MJ; Hill, EM; Petrou, S; Tran, PB; Png, ME; Staniszewska, S; Clark, C; Hassel, K; Stowe, J; Andrews, N (2025) Cost-effectiveness of routine COVID-19 adult vaccination programmes in England VACCINE 53
Koki, C; Shields, R; Sweetman, R; Boyle, J; Khan, O; Keung, SNLC; Arvanitis, TN; Devall, AJ; Burroughs, NJ; Quenby, S (2025) Fertility, time to pregnancy, and pregnancy outcomes among women with recurrent miscarriages in the UK: a prospective observational longitudinal study LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-EUROPE 55
Didelot, X; Helekal, D; Roberts, I (2025) Ancestral process for infectious disease outbreaks with superspreading JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY 607
Inman, A; Spiritosanto, E; Evans, BL; Lutton, JE; Tada, M; Bretschneider, T; Haas, PA; Smutny, M (2025) A multi-tiered mechanical mechanism shapes the early neural plate NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 16
Higgins, D; Looker, J; Sunnucks, R; Carruthers, J; Finnie, T; Keeling, MJ; Hill, EM (2025) Introducing a framework for within-host dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenza infection in humans JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE 22
Rand, DA; Sáez, M (2025) Bistable boundary conditions implying codimension 2 bifurcations NONLINEARITY 38
Didelot, X; Ribeca, P (2025) KPop: accurate and scalable comparative analysis of microbial genomes by sequence embeddings GENOME BIOLOGY 26
Koh, JMJ; Cunniffe, NJ; Parnell, S (2025) Assessing delimiting strategies to identify the infested zones of quarantine plant pests and diseases SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 15
Curran-Sebastian, J; Dyson, L; Hill, EM; Hall, I; Pellis, L; House, T (2025) Probability of extinction and peak time for multi-type epidemics with application to COVID-19 variants of concern JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY 608
Yang, ZY; Davies, H; Clapham, J; Lopez, L; Bratcher, HB; Tiong, A; Didelot, X; Maiden, MCJ; Carter, PE; Ren, XY (2025) Phylodynamic analysis of a prolonged meningococcal epidemic reveals multiple introductions and pre-epidemic expansion INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION 129
Althobaity, YM; Tildesley, MJ (2025) Exploring the epidemiological characteristics of Mpox in the Arab Gulf countries SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 15
Prosser, NS; Hill, EM; Gow, L; Cavallaro, M; Tildesley, MJ; Keeling, MJ; Kaler, J; Ferguson, E; Green, MJ (2025) Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England (2016-2023) VETERINARY RECORD
Ellis, J; Lázaro, E; Duarte, B; Magalhaes, T; Duarte, A; Benhadi-Marín, J; Pereira, JA; Vicent, A; Parnell, S; Cunniffe, NJ (2025) Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huanglongbing in the European Union PLANTS PEOPLE PLANET
Ogi-Gittins, I; Steyn, N; Polonsky, J; Hart, WS; Keita, M; Ahuka-Mundeke, S; Hill, EM; Thompson, RN (2025) Simulation-based inference of the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated and under-reported disease incidence time series data PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 383
Bierkens, J; Kamatani, K; Roberts, GO (2025) Scaling of piecewise deterministic Monte Carlo for anisotropic targets BERNOULLI 31 2323-2350
Muter, J et al. (2025) Stalling of the endometrial decidual reaction determines the recurrence risk of miscarriage SCIENCE ADVANCES 11
Medina-Aguayo, FJ; Everitt, RG (2025) Annealing Strategies for Variance Reduction in Balance Heuristic Estimators STATISTICS AND COMPUTING 35
Musundi, S et al. (2025) Emergence and transmission dynamics of the FY.4 Omicron variant in Kenya VIRUS EVOLUTION 11
Rehman, SSU; Nasar, MI; Mesquita, CS; Al Khodor, S; Notebaart, RA; Ott, S; Mundra, S; Arasardanam, RP; Muhammad, K; Alam, MT (2025) Integrative systems biology approaches for analyzing microbiome dysbiosis and species interactions BRIEFINGS IN BIOINFORMATICS 26
Crucinio, FR; Durmus, A; Jiménez, P; Roberts, GO (2025) Optimal scaling results for Moreau-Yosida Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms BERNOULLI 31 1889-1907
Hu, SG; Dai, HS; Meng, FL; Aslett, L; Pollock, M; Roberts, GO (2025) Statistical disaggregation-A Monte Carlo approach for imputation under constraints SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF STATISTICS
Nyiro, JU; Bukusi, E; Mureithi, MW; Walumbe, D; Nyaguara, A; Kipkoech, C; Nyawanda, B; Bigogo, G; Otieno, N; Aol, G; Audi, A; Murunga, N; Berkley, JA; Nokes, DJ; Munywoki, PK (2025) Prevalence and Predictors of Adverse Birth Outcomes and Their Implications in Assessing the Safety of New Maternal Vaccines in Kenya PEDIATRIC INFECTIOUS DISEASE JOURNAL 44 S114-S118
Ogi-Gittins, I; Polonsky, J; Keita, M; Ahuka-Mundeke, S; Hart, WS; Plank, MJ; Lambert, B; Hill, EM; Thompson, RN (2025) Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING 10 935-945
Chávez, VA; Brown, N; van den Bosch, F; Parnell, S; Dyke, A; Hall, C; Karlsdottir, B; Marzano, M; Morris, J; O'Brien, L; Williams, D; Milne, AE (2025) Early detection strategies for invading tree pests: Targeted surveillance and stakeholder perspectives JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY 62 857-871
Mitja, O et al. (2025) Guidance for conducting and evaluating serological surveys to assess interruption of yaws transmission in the context of an eradication target PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 19